For example, the clients of a portfolio manager may have seen positive returns during an economic crisis, which may make the manager seem like someone who predicted the downturn. The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is an informal fallacy in which pieces of information that have no relationship to one another are called out for their similarities, and that similarity is used for claiming the existence of a pattern. By focusing on trades and strategies that a manager got right, the investor may inadvertently disregard what the manager didn’t do well. Investors may fall prey to the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy when evaluating portfolio managers.
The fallacy outlines how people can ignore randomness when determining whether results are meaningful, focusing on similarities and ignoring differences. The gunman didn’t aim for the target specifically (instead, he was aiming for the barn), but outsiders might believe that he meant to hit the target. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy also called a clustering illusion, takes its name from the metaphor of a gunman who shoots at a side of a barn, and only later draws targets around a cluster of points that were hit. Understanding the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is only one of many fallacies a wise investor should understand and avoid.It illustrates how people look for similarities, ignoring differences, and do not account for randomness.The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a logical fallacy based on the metaphor of a gunman shooting the side of a barn, then drawing targets around the bullethole clusters to make it look like he hit the target.Using the formal symbolism in modal logic, the de dicto expression ◻ ( B x → ¬ M x ) is false. Like if you shoot at a wall, then go over and draw a bullseye around the grouping you want. This, however, would undermine the argument, as a) is only a tautology de dicto – indeed, interpreted de re, it is false. sailormoonape ScottMc40152721 JGrimmJr1 MadisonMcClean DineshDSouza realLizUSA No, the Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a process where only certain data that supports your opinion is used. The argument is only valid if both a) and c) are construed de re. Formally speaking, this type of argument equivocates between the de dicto necessity of a) and the de re necessity of c). In this case, c) has unwarranted necessity by assuming, incorrectly, that John cannot stop being a bachelor.
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John, of course, is always free to stop being a bachelor, simply by getting married if he does so, b) is no longer true and thus not subject to the tautology a). The condition b) is a statement of fact about John which makes him subject to a) that is, b) declares John a bachelor, and a) states that all bachelors are unmarried.īecause c) presumes b) will always be the case, it is a fallacy of necessity. The condition a) appears to be a tautology and therefore true. ( October 2019) ( Learn how and when to remove this template message)Ī fallacy of necessity is a fallacy in the logic of a syllogism whereby a degree of unwarranted necessity is placed in the conclusion.Įxample a) Bachelors are necessarily unmarried. Please help to improve this article by introducing more precise citations. This article includes a list of general references, but it lacks sufficient corresponding inline citations.
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